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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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